Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

286.05 – 432.34

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

375 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 138.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 701.9 ±9.3

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 109.72Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 131.43Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 44.9Rank 29Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.8 ±10.4

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 153.36Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 125.93Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 153.05Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 166, 3128, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 166, 3128, 2682

Auto

79.3 30%

Teleop

163.5 62%

Endgame

22.4 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 59, 2443, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.3 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 59, 2443, 6413

Auto

83.6 21%

Teleop

247.7 61%

Endgame

76.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score286.1pts

Blue projected score432.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.3
Score range: 211–507
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 414.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

701.9Season APEX587.8

79.3Auto83.6

163.5Teleop247.7

22.4Endgame76.4

99Consistency191

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	30
teleop	157	147
endgame	112	67
foul	5	0
total	375	244

Result

Final score

375 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 138.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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