Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

431.51 – 363.46

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

479 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.7 ±11.1

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 312Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 48.22Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 71.29Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 767.9 ±11

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 188.8Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 47.8Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 126.86Rank 25Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 254, 7567, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.5 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 254, 7567, 9200

Auto

85.9 21%

Teleop

201.6 48%

Endgame

131.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8613, 2053, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.5 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 8613, 2053, 6045

Auto

53.8 15%

Teleop

228.8 64%

Endgame

74.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score431.5pts

Blue projected score363.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.1
Score range: 288–507
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 902 vs event baseline 413.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.7Season APEX767.9

85.9Auto53.8

201.6Teleop228.8

131.3Endgame74.8

136Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	80
teleop	248	168
endgame	101	150
foul	15	25
total	479	423

Result

Final score

479 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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