Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.35 – 295.18

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.4 ±8.8

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 46.6Rank 37Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 275.49Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 57.26Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635.7 ±9.3

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 3.8Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 162.34Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 129.04Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10922, 125, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.4 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 10922, 125, 302

Auto

83.0 23%

Teleop

212.6 58%

Endgame

68.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11318, 5712, 7421

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.2 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11318, 5712, 7421

Auto

78.4 27%

Teleop

138.5 48%

Endgame

71.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score379.4pts

Blue projected score295.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.2
Score range: 220–454
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 415.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

666.4Season APEX635.7

83Auto78.4

212.6Teleop138.5

68.2Endgame71.6

127Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	25
teleop	223	99
endgame	37	111
foul	0	20
total	344	255

Result

Final score

344 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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