Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

365.83 – 261.04

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

385 – 448

Prediction missed · off by 103.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.7 ±10.5

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 105.72Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 88.52Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 171.59Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.7 ±9.8

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 149.91Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 66.26Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 44.87Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3792, 4027, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.8 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 3792, 4027, 6615

Auto

62.9 17%

Teleop

202.2 54%

Endgame

108.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 6417, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

261 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1714, 6417, 7539

Auto

73.9 28%

Teleop

138.4 53%

Endgame

50.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score365.8pts

Blue projected score261pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.8
Score range: 186–441
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 833 vs event baseline 415.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.7Season APEX591.7

62.9Auto73.9

202.2Teleop138.4

108.6Endgame50.8

133Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	47
teleop	196	233
endgame	84	143
foul	15	25
total	385	448

Result

Final score

385 – 448

Prediction missed · off by 103.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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