Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

504.18 – 540.7

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

339 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 99.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.1 ±9.3

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 185.58Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 140.73Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 177.87Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 792.6 ±9.3

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 165.17Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 285.55Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 89.98Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2412, 3197, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

504.2 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2412, 3197, 6497

Auto

53.9 11%

Teleop

311.4 62%

Endgame

138.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 5907, 2357

/ 100 compat

Projected

540.7 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 10254, 5907, 2357

Auto

54.7 10%

Teleop

296.7 54%

Endgame

198.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.54 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score504.2pts

Blue projected score540.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.5
Score range: 430–615
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 846 vs event baseline 412.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.1Season APEX792.6

53.9Auto54.7

311.4Teleop296.7

138Endgame198.4

197Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	37
teleop	165	322
endgame	105	138
foul	0	10
total	339	507

Result

Final score

339 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 99.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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