Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

472.2 – 245.47

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 809.5 ±10.2

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 289.14Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 119.95Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 63.11Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.1 ±11.2

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 102.58Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 63.39Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 79.5Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6369, 1498, 11304

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.2 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6369, 1498, 11304

Auto

101.1 21%

Teleop

241.3 50%

Endgame

136.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 589, 9066, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.5 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 589, 9066, 5166

Auto

53.8 23%

Teleop

102.6 44%

Endgame

78.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score472.2pts

Blue projected score245.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.7
Score range: 170–547
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 414.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

809.5Season APEX584.1

101.1Auto53.8

241.3Teleop102.6

136.4Endgame78.4

158Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	131	22
teleop	211	93
endgame	65	49
foul	0	5
total	407	169

Result

Final score

407 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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