Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

286.15 – 396.41

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 424

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.9 ±8.7

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 117.04Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 112.09Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 57.02Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 772.8 ±9.3

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 147.89Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 217.73Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 30.79Rank 29Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 4786, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.2 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 294, 4786, 1684

Auto

50.0 18%

Teleop

157.6 57%

Endgame

69.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 571, 5460, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.4 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 571, 5460, 2682

Auto

71.8 18%

Teleop

202.9 52%

Endgame

117.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score286.2pts

Blue projected score396.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.3
Score range: 211–471
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 658 vs event baseline 418.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.9Season APEX772.8

50Auto71.8

157.6Teleop202.9

69.8Endgame117.9

166Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	134
teleop	120	261
endgame	65	29
foul	0	0
total	234	424

Result

Final score

234 – 424

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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