Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

338.14 – 443.31

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

289 – 709

Prediction correct · off by 157.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.7 ±9.8

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 42.87Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 206.65Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 88.62Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 895.2 ±10.5

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 52.22Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 249.4Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 141.69Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2053, 5712, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.1 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2053, 5712, 6417

Auto

56.5 17%

Teleop

192.7 57%

Endgame

87.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9609, 5907, 8613

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.3 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 9609, 5907, 8613

Auto

71.8 16%

Teleop

243.2 56%

Endgame

121.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score338.1pts

Blue projected score443.3pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.2
Score range: 264–517
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 998 vs event baseline 411.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.7Season APEX895.2

56.5Auto71.8

192.7Teleop243.2

87.5Endgame121.1

159Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	101
teleop	172	385
endgame	51	208
foul	10	15
total	289	709

Result

Final score

289 – 709

Prediction correct · off by 157.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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