Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.35 – 456.96

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

332 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.6 ±10.4

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 13.1Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 129.94Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 91.31Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710.3 ±9.4

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 167.97Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 201.88Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 87.11Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7539, 2992, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.4 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7539, 2992, 589

Auto

17.9 7%

Teleop

147.5 59%

Endgame

83.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4611, 9023, 2357

/ 100 compat

Projected

457 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4611, 9023, 2357

Auto

87.2 20%

Teleop

252.3 57%

Endgame

103.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score234.4pts

Blue projected score457pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -222.6
Score range: 160–531
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 766 vs event baseline 412.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.6Season APEX710.3

17.9Auto87.2

147.5Teleop252.3

83.2Endgame103.8

139Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	58
teleop	126	224
endgame	127	152
foul	10	0
total	332	434

Result

Final score

332 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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