Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

328.86 – 257.29

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.3 ±9.8

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 53.95Rank 29Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 132.25Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 142.66Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.6 ±9.8

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 109.91Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 61.08Rank 37Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 86.3Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2682, 7565, 2412

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2682, 7565, 2412

Auto

55.7 18%

Teleop

176.6 56%

Endgame

85.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 10922, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.3 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 10349, 10922, 7539

Auto

59.8 24%

Teleop

142.2 56%

Endgame

52.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score328.9pts

Blue projected score257.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.6
Score range: 179–407
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 433.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.3Season APEX579.6

55.7Auto59.8

176.6Teleop142.2

85.6Endgame52.3

136Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	36
teleop	215	91
endgame	75	39
foul	5	0
total	347	166

Result

Final score

347 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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