Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

530.83 – 570.69

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

425 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.7 ±8.1

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 34.02Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 292.11Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 204.7Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 889.3 ±9.3

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 148.39Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 118.67Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 303.63Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11318, 125, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

530.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 11318, 125, 3847

Auto

97.8 18%

Teleop

322.3 60%

Endgame

116.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 3932, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

570.7 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1498, 3932, 254

Auto

121.9 22%

Teleop

259.7 47%

Endgame

170.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.64 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score530.8pts

Blue projected score570.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.9
Score range: 457–645
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 411.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

759.7Season APEX889.3

97.8Auto121.9

322.3Teleop259.7

116.4Endgame170.5

111Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	152
teleop	205	214
endgame	77	144
foul	35	0
total	425	510

Result

Final score

425 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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