Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.72 – 147.58

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 55.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±10.5

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 63.31Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 90.66Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 69.75Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.9 ±9.3

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 77.8Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 48.58Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 21.2Rank 29Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9200, 4027, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.7 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9200, 4027, 302

Auto

8.6 4%

Teleop

110.5 53%

Endgame

91.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5166, 8280, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5166, 8280, 2682

Auto

28.6 21%

Teleop

57.4 41%

Endgame

53.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score223.7pts

Blue projected score147.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.1
Score range: 73–299
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 414.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.3Season APEX497.9

8.6Auto28.6

110.5Teleop57.4

91.3Endgame53.1

148Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	20
teleop	112	104
endgame	43	86
foul	0	5
total	180	215

Result

Final score

180 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 55.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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