Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.02 – 496.1

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

449 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 130 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.1 ±10.5

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 74.83Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 98.76Rank 25Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 80.43Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 625.5 ±9.8

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 164.59Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 177.27Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 154.24Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3792, 6045, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

254 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3792, 6045, 6773

Auto

48.8 20%

Teleop

160.7 64%

Endgame

40.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 987, 3197, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

496.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 987, 3197, 6413

Auto

78.2 16%

Teleop

282.7 57%

Endgame

139.3 28%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score254pts

Blue projected score496.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -242.1
Score range: 180–570
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 880 vs event baseline 413.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.1Season APEX625.5

48.8Auto78.2

160.7Teleop282.7

40.3Endgame139.3

158Consistency237

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	74
teleop	234	280
endgame	146	62
foul	5	15
total	449	431

Result

Final score

449 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 130 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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