Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

338.46 – 438.49

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

257 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.2 ±9.3

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 51.68Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 193.48Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 93.3Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 627.3 ±9.3

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 184.3Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 136.44Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 117.75Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11167, 10254, 4256

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.5 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 11167, 10254, 4256

Auto

82.9 24%

Teleop

197.2 58%

Endgame

61.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2724, 1024, 2443

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.5 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2724, 1024, 2443

Auto

55.1 13%

Teleop

255.9 61%

Endgame

107.4 26%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score338.5pts

Blue projected score438.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100
Score range: 263–513
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 656 vs event baseline 416.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.2Season APEX627.3

82.9Auto55.1

197.2Teleop255.9

61.1Endgame107.4

204Consistency235

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	100
teleop	90	196
endgame	93	103
foul	5	0
total	257	399

Result

Final score

257 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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