Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

388.1 – 504.95

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

527 – 599

Prediction correct · off by 116.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 748.2 ±8.7

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 151.32Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 71.02Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 165.76Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 909.7 ±8.7

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 138.85Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 107.63Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 258.47Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6615, 166, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.1 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6615, 166, 5193

Auto

109.5 29%

Teleop

196.9 52%

Endgame

75.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 571, 294, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

505 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 571, 294, 6800

Auto

106.7 21%

Teleop

284.0 55%

Endgame

127.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score388.1pts

Blue projected score505pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.8
Score range: 313–580
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1126 vs event baseline 414.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

748.2Season APEX909.7

109.5Auto106.7

196.9Teleop284

75.5Endgame127.2

187Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	83
teleop	289	295
endgame	98	221
foul	30	0
total	527	599

Result

Final score

527 – 599

Prediction correct · off by 116.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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