Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

266.67 – 352

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

512 – 402

Prediction missed · off by 147.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.7 ±9.4

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX -7.31Rank 56Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 30.71Rank 37Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 243.27Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 810.7 ±11.2

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 134.39Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 71.99Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 145.62Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 10922, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.7 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 8725, 10922, 6369

Auto

115.2 46%

Teleop

114.9 46%

Endgame

18.5 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6510, 1684, 870

/ 100 compat

Projected

352 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 6510, 1684, 870

Auto

78.9 23%

Teleop

187.7 55%

Endgame

74.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score266.7pts

Blue projected score352pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.3
Score range: 193–426
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 914 vs event baseline 413.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.7Season APEX810.7

115.2Auto78.9

114.9Teleop187.7

18.5Endgame74.1

148Consistency188

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	133	72
teleop	322	204
endgame	57	126
foul	0	0
total	512	402

Result

Final score

512 – 402

Prediction missed · off by 147.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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