Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

622.38 – 418.43

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

785 – 420

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 823.5 ±8.7

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 198.87Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 164.49Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 259.02Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 644.8 ±9.8

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 207.71Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 113.44Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 97.28Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 1714, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

622.4 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5199, 1714, 5907

Auto

86.0 14%

Teleop

329.4 54%

Endgame

194.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 987, 166, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.4 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 987, 166, 3932

Auto

100.9 25%

Teleop

209.2 52%

Endgame

91.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score622.4pts

Blue projected score418.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204
Score range: 340–700
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1205 vs event baseline 433.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

823.5Season APEX644.8

86Auto100.9

329.4Teleop209.2

194.6Endgame91.9

72Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	112
teleop	423	228
endgame	256	70
foul	0	10
total	785	420

Result

Final score

785 – 420

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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