Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

362.89 – 534.93

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

575 – 476

Prediction missed · off by 135.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 804.5 ±9.3

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 159.25Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX -9.15Rank 29Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 212.79Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750 ±10

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 132.17Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 106.9Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 295.86Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1987, 2682, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.9 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1987, 2682, 5907

Auto

47.2 13%

Teleop

223.5 60%

Endgame

102.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2992, 7567, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

534.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2992, 7567, 125

Auto

79.3 15%

Teleop

297.1 55%

Endgame

162.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score362.9pts

Blue projected score534.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172
Score range: 289–609
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1051 vs event baseline 412.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

804.5Season APEX750

47.2Auto79.3

223.5Teleop297.1

102.2Endgame162.2

60Consistency225

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	60
teleop	313	259
endgame	209	157
foul	15	0
total	575	476

Result

Final score

575 – 476

Prediction missed · off by 135.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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