Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.1 – 403.82

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 406

Prediction missed · off by 159.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 617 ±9.3

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX -0.63Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 93.19Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 66.54Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 624.9 ±9.8

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 140.7Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 174.68Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 88.44Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 302, 6413, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 302, 6413, 1498

Auto

17.9 11%

Teleop

78.7 50%

Endgame

61.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 6497, 4027

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1477, 6497, 4027

Auto

48.3 12%

Teleop

239.4 58%

Endgame

128.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score159.1pts

Blue projected score403.8pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -244.7
Score range: 85–478
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 882 vs event baseline 412.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

617Season APEX624.9

17.9Auto48.3

78.7Teleop239.4

61.5Endgame128.3

178Consistency212

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	34
teleop	263	198
endgame	103	174
foul	0	0
total	476	406

Result

Final score

476 – 406

Prediction missed · off by 159.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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