Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

299.96 – 483.39

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 718.5 ±9.8

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 94.29Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 116.58Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 89.09Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 834.2 ±10.7

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 105.65Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 70.5Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 307.24Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 9068, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

300 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 8280, 9068, 9609

Auto

62.8 21%

Teleop

127.3 44%

Endgame

102.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 9066, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

483.4 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4786, 9066, 254

Auto

87.6 18%

Teleop

231.5 49%

Endgame

156.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score300pts

Blue projected score483.4pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.4
Score range: 226–557
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 411.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

718.5Season APEX834.2

62.8Auto87.6

127.3Teleop231.5

102.2Endgame156.6

154Consistency192

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	112
teleop	119	212
endgame	2	84
foul	5	65
total	202	473

Result

Final score

202 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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