Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.22 – 354.93

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 722.6 ±8.7

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 65.69Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 186.35Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 133.18Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 770.5 ±11.7

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 158.46Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 73.05Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 123.42Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 1714, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1684, 1714, 5193

Auto

97.9 25%

Teleop

190.7 49%

Endgame

97.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3181, 11304, 870

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3181, 11304, 870

Auto

82.1 24%

Teleop

164.2 47%

Endgame

101.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score385.2pts

Blue projected score354.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 281–459
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 795 vs event baseline 412.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

722.6Season APEX770.5

97.9Auto82.1

190.7Teleop164.2

97.4Endgame101.3

175Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	104
teleop	206	161
endgame	128	91
foul	30	15
total	424	371

Result

Final score

424 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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