Qualification · Qualification 42
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
231.51 – 475.25
5%95%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
365 – 418
Prediction correct · off by 95.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 101.88Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 5.56Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 124.07Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 687.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 30.71Rank 56Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 169.34Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 275.2Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2443, 7539, 3197
56
/ 100 compatProjected
231.5 pts
~0.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 2443, 7539, 3197
Auto
48.1 23%
Teleop
98.6 46%
Endgame
67.0 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Low variance, consistent output
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8725, 7421, 5199
75
/ 100 compatProjected
475.3 pts
~2.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 8725, 7421, 5199
Auto
95.7 20%
Teleop
261.9 56%
Endgame
112.4 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score231.5pts
Blue projected score475.3pts
Red win probability5%
Event bonus sample278alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 21%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -243.7
- Score range
- 158–549
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
603.1Season APEX687.1
48.1Auto95.7
98.6Teleop261.9
67Endgame112.4
238Consistency146
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 86 |
| teleop | 229 | 251 |
| endgame | 98 | 81 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 365 | 418 |
Result
Final score
365 – 418
Prediction correct · off by 95.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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