Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

345.78 – 501.5

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

432 – 668

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597 ±10.5

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 143.8Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 72.78Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 129.2Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.4 ±8.1

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 125.69Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 187.18Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 188.63Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2724, 9200, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.8 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2724, 9200, 3932

Auto

75.6 23%

Teleop

193.4 58%

Endgame

66.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5572, 6369, 2412

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.5 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 5572, 6369, 2412

Auto

78.7 16%

Teleop

285.3 59%

Endgame

118.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score345.8pts

Blue projected score501.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.7
Score range: 272–576
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1100 vs event baseline 410.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597Season APEX759.4

75.6Auto78.7

193.4Teleop285.3

66.6Endgame118.7

189Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	130
teleop	198	383
endgame	127	150
foul	30	5
total	432	668

Result

Final score

432 – 668

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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