Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.05 – 316.7

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

576 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 758.6 ±8.8

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 49.99Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 126.13Rank 25Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 284.93Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 647.4 ±11.7

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 77.76Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 130.47Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 108.47Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 6045, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8280, 6045, 125

Auto

55.4 12%

Teleop

256.6 58%

Endgame

132.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2357, 6417, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.7 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2357, 6417, 6510

Auto

51.4 16%

Teleop

175.3 56%

Endgame

86.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score461.1pts

Blue projected score316.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.4
Score range: 239–539
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 859 vs event baseline 433.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

758.6Season APEX647.4

55.4Auto51.4

256.6Teleop175.3

132.7Endgame86.7

130Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	94
teleop	340	149
endgame	190	40
foul	5	0
total	576	283

Result

Final score

576 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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