Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.43 – 463.91

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

371 – 500

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.5 ±10.5

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 34.6Rank 37Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 77.02Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 180.81Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 913.2 ±9.3

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 98.35Rank 25Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 237.89Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 127.67Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10922, 8595, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.4 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 10922, 8595, 3847

Auto

94.4 34%

Teleop

114.8 42%

Endgame

66.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6045, 6800, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6045, 6800, 3128

Auto

75.8 17%

Teleop

283.2 64%

Endgame

85.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score292.4pts

Blue projected score463.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.5
Score range: 218–538
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 871 vs event baseline 410.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.5Season APEX913.2

94.4Auto75.8

114.8Teleop283.2

66.3Endgame85

193Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	84
teleop	216	263
endgame	48	138
foul	0	15
total	371	500

Result

Final score

371 – 500

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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