Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.95 – 242.8

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

501 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 158.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 711 ±13.5

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 166.66Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX -63.04Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 180.33Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.3 ±9.3

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 108.09Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 49.16Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 85.55Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6497, 302, 5987

/ 100 compat

Projected

284 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 6497, 302, 5987

Auto

38.9 14%

Teleop

185.9 67%

Endgame

51.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2992, 11167, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.8 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2992, 11167, 10349

Auto

66.8 28%

Teleop

134.9 56%

Endgame

39.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score284pts

Blue projected score242.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.1
Score range: 171–356
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 844 vs event baseline 400.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

711Season APEX576.3

38.9Auto66.8

185.9Teleop134.9

51.7Endgame39.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	69
teleop	304	184
endgame	159	90
foul	0	0
total	501	343

Result

Final score

501 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 158.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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