Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

374.32 – 331.29

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

329 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.5 ±11

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 140.74Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 89.86Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 143.72Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.5 ±9.8

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 74.61Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 115.6Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 141.08Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 987, 2357, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.3 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 987, 2357, 7567

Auto

62.3 17%

Teleop

193.3 52%

Endgame

117.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4027, 5193, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4027, 5193, 9077

Auto

85.4 26%

Teleop

138.6 42%

Endgame

105.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score374.3pts

Blue projected score331.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43
Score range: 259–446
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 402.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.5Season APEX615.5

62.3Auto85.4

193.3Teleop138.6

117.5Endgame105

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	54
teleop	173	226
endgame	111	108
foul	0	5
total	329	393

Result

Final score

329 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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