Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

530.94 – 324.48

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

585 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 71.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 828.8 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 284.46Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 111.46Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 135.02Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 644.1 ±10.7

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 36.01Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 101.05Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 187.42Rank 62Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 571, 59

/ 100 compat

Projected

530.9 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 125, 571, 59

Auto

61.3 11%

Teleop

324.9 60%

Endgame

151.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9066, 3197, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.5 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9066, 3197, 6366

Auto

39.2 12%

Teleop

194.3 60%

Endgame

88.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score530.9pts

Blue projected score324.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.5
Score range: 252–603
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 999 vs event baseline 401.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

828.8Season APEX644.1

61.3Auto39.2

324.9Teleop194.3

151.9Endgame88.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	143	60
teleop	311	215
endgame	131	139
foul	0	0
total	585	414

Result

Final score

585 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 71.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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