Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

542.69 – 426.99

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

467 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792 ±9.3

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 235.58Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 159.67Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 147.44Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.1 ±11

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 161.59Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 118.79Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 146.61Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10254, 9068, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

542.7 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10254, 9068, 5572

Auto

80.5 15%

Teleop

335.9 62%

Endgame

124.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7421, 8613, 4256

/ 100 compat

Projected

427 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7421, 8613, 4256

Auto

34.0 8%

Teleop

244.3 59%

Endgame

132.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score542.7pts

Blue projected score427pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.7
Score range: 355–615
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 884 vs event baseline 400.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792Season APEX677.1

80.5Auto34

335.9Teleop244.3

124.5Endgame132.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	88
teleop	283	254
endgame	150	70
foul	10	5
total	467	417

Result

Final score

467 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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