Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

365.98 – 255.9

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 851.8 ±10.7

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 108.71Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 99.89Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 157.38Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.2 ±11.2

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 25.53Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 135.37Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 95Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1498, 6510, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

366 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1498, 6510, 3128

Auto

117.3 32%

Teleop

167.1 46%

Endgame

79.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7539, 294, 11304

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 7539, 294, 11304

Auto

30.7 11%

Teleop

182.9 64%

Endgame

71.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score366pts

Blue projected score255.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.1
Score range: 184–438
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 401.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

851.8Season APEX750.2

117.3Auto30.7

167.1Teleop182.9

79.5Endgame71.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	58
teleop	144	61
endgame	92	70
foul	15	10
total	308	199

Result

Final score

308 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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