Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

450.06 – 455.97

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

439 – 534

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 763.4 ±9.9

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 223.88Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 77.5Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 148.68Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 819.3 ±13.5

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 137.09Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 199.21Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 119.67Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5460, 9200, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5460, 9200, 1498

Auto

114.9 26%

Teleop

235.6 53%

Endgame

97.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9609, 5987, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

456 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9609, 5987, 5712

Auto

107.0 24%

Teleop

221.5 50%

Endgame

110.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score450.1pts

Blue projected score456pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.9
Score range: 372–534
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 973 vs event baseline 433.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

763.4Season APEX819.3

114.9Auto107

235.6Teleop221.5

97.6Endgame110.2

154Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	103
teleop	197	280
endgame	145	136
foul	5	15
total	439	534

Result

Final score

439 – 534

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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