Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

339.75 – 358.05

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

459 – 610

Prediction correct · off by 185.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.6 ±9.3

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 166.45Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 164.13Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 9.17Rank 56Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.2 ±9.3

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 119.88Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 121.81Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 116.36Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 6615, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 5712, 6615, 8725

Auto

69.0 20%

Teleop

210.6 62%

Endgame

57.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3847, 3181, 2412

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.1 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 3847, 3181, 2412

Auto

83.1 23%

Teleop

205.3 56%

Endgame

76.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.58 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score339.8pts

Blue projected score358.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 269–429
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1069 vs event baseline 396.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

685.6Season APEX693.2

69Auto83.1

210.6Teleop205.3

57.5Endgame76.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	103
teleop	217	373
endgame	153	114
foul	10	20
total	459	610

Result

Final score

459 – 610

Prediction correct · off by 185.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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