Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

299.12 – 318.38

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

286 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±10.4

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 136.3Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 69.07Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 93.75Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.5 ±9.9

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 113.38Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 115.78Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 89.22Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3932, 6417, 7565

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.1 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3932, 6417, 7565

Auto

68.1 23%

Teleop

181.4 61%

Endgame

47.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 1024, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4786, 1024, 8595

Auto

98.8 31%

Teleop

143.4 45%

Endgame

79.6 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score299.1pts

Blue projected score318.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.3
Score range: 227–390
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 399.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.3Season APEX654.5

68.1Auto98.8

181.4Teleop143.4

47.5Endgame79.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	45
teleop	191	224
endgame	45	125
foul	0	0
total	286	394

Result

Final score

286 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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