Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.53 – 263.38

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.2 ±9.4

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 73.41Rank 37Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 110.24Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 205.88Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.3 ±11.1

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 77.61Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 91.59Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 94.18Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10922, 2443, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10922, 2443, 9023

Auto

73.5 19%

Teleop

217.5 56%

Endgame

98.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5166, 3792, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5166, 3792, 9200

Auto

60.7 23%

Teleop

110.4 41%

Endgame

95.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score389.5pts

Blue projected score263.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.1
Score range: 190–463
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 403.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.2Season APEX475.3

73.5Auto60.7

217.5Teleop110.4

98.5Endgame95.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	38
teleop	131	122
endgame	67	16
foul	85	10
total	374	186

Result

Final score

374 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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