Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.15 – 299.31

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 657.8 ±9.8

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 156.36Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 118.83Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 104.96Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 704.2 ±8.7

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 116.6Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 132.41Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 50.3Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9609, 589, 2637

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.2 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 9609, 589, 2637

Auto

90.4 24%

Teleop

196.1 52%

Endgame

92.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 166, 2724, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.3 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 166, 2724, 1684

Auto

69.0 23%

Teleop

171.4 58%

Endgame

57.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score380.2pts

Blue projected score299.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.8
Score range: 225–454
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 409.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

657.8Season APEX704.2

90.4Auto69

196.1Teleop171.4

92.4Endgame57.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	94
teleop	90	153
endgame	54	49
foul	20	0
total	220	296

Result

Final score

220 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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