Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.93 – 210.19

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.8 ±8.7

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 102.22Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 149.77Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 83.94Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.7 ±9.3

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 86.16Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 37.73Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 86.3Rank 25Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5193, 1477, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5193, 1477, 8575

Auto

67.1 20%

Teleop

167.9 50%

Endgame

101.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11318, 10349, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.2 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 11318, 10349, 6045

Auto

34.0 16%

Teleop

114.5 54%

Endgame

62.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score335.9pts

Blue projected score210.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.7
Score range: 136–410
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 621 vs event baseline 413.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.8Season APEX638.7

67.1Auto34

167.9Teleop114.5

101.1Endgame62.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	67
teleop	178	165
endgame	72	20
foul	0	20
total	349	272

Result

Final score

349 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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