Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

370.11 – 313.01

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

404 – 437

Prediction missed · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.8 ±9.3

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 93.52Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 154.86Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 121.73Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±11

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 118.84Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 71.34Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 122.83Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 571, 4256, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 571, 4256, 5572

Auto

81.1 22%

Teleop

197.4 53%

Endgame

91.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7567, 870, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

313 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 7567, 870, 6497

Auto

71.4 23%

Teleop

140.5 45%

Endgame

100.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score370.1pts

Blue projected score313pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.1
Score range: 239–444
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 841 vs event baseline 413.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.8Season APEX655

81.1Auto71.4

197.4Teleop140.5

91Endgame100.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	73
teleop	216	233
endgame	113	126
foul	15	5
total	404	437

Result

Final score

404 – 437

Prediction missed · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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