Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

392.68 – 519.75

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

733 – 564

Prediction missed · off by 192.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 927.9 ±8.8

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 76.51Rank 8Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 133.83Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 182.34Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 947.1 ±9.9

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 135.77Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 161.43Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 222.55Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3128, 7028, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.7 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3128, 7028, 125

Auto

69.4 18%

Teleop

204.4 53%

Endgame

114.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8613, 6800, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

519.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 8613, 6800, 10254

Auto

98.6 19%

Teleop

299.7 58%

Endgame

119.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score392.7pts

Blue projected score519.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.1
Score range: 321–592
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1297 vs event baseline 400.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

927.9Season APEX947.1

69.4Auto98.6

204.4Teleop299.7

114.1Endgame119.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	154	60
teleop	404	380
endgame	165	124
foul	10	0
total	733	564

Result

Final score

733 – 564

Prediction missed · off by 192.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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