Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
340.17 – 62.37
97%3%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
331 – 201
Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 848.3 ±10.7
Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 75.43Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 134.61Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 130.13Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 175.5Event APEX -74.09Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 206.3Event APEX -38.63Rank 56Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 175.09Rank 62Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9066, 1987, 294
60
/ 100 compatProjected
340.2 pts
~2.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 9066, 1987, 294
Auto
68.3 20%
Teleop
207.6 62%
Endgame
58.8 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 302, 8725, 6366
24
/ 100 compatProjected
62.4 pts
~0.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 302, 8725, 6366
Auto
16.8 30%
Teleop
41.1 74%
Endgame
-2.0 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.74
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score340.2pts
Blue projected score62.4pts
Red win probability97%
Event bonus sample278alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 277.8
- Score range
- -11–413
- Upset likelihood
- 3%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
848.3Season APEX562.3
68.3Auto16.8
207.6Teleop41.1
58.8Endgame-2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 58 | 33 |
| teleop | 230 | 122 |
| endgame | 43 | 31 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 331 | 201 |
Result
Final score
331 – 201
Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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