Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.38 – 309.57

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523 ±9.3

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 147.88Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 68.15Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 101.35Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 657.3 ±9.3

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 60.72Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 161.66Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 87.19Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7421, 8575, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7421, 8575, 5166

Auto

68.2 22%

Teleop

179.5 57%

Endgame

66.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 6615, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1684, 6615, 2053

Auto

71.1 23%

Teleop

144.6 48%

Endgame

87.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score317.4pts

Blue projected score309.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.8
Score range: 232–395
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 629 vs event baseline 433.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523Season APEX657.3

68.2Auto71.1

179.5Teleop144.6

66.3Endgame87.3

168Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	83
teleop	171	166
endgame	86	52
foul	0	0
total	328	301

Result

Final score

328 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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