Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

395.97 – 352.36

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

645 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 147.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 863.6 ±8.1

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 135.84Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 163.14Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 96.99Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656 ±9.3

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 96Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 130.15Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 126.21Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5460, 9023, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

396 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5460, 9023, 6615

Auto

99.3 25%

Teleop

189.0 48%

Endgame

105.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3197, 2637, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.4 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3197, 2637, 3932

Auto

83.0 24%

Teleop

180.4 52%

Endgame

84.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score396pts

Blue projected score352.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.6
Score range: 279–469
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 951 vs event baseline 403.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

863.6Season APEX656

99.3Auto83

189Teleop180.4

105.9Endgame84.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	129	69
teleop	347	160
endgame	154	77
foul	15	0
total	645	306

Result

Final score

645 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 147.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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