Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

532.02 – 302.46

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

490 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 752.9 ±9.8

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 256.61Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 104.55Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 170.86Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.3 ±10.5

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 127.38Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 86.37Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 88.71Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 7565, 9068

/ 100 compat

Projected

532 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5199, 7565, 9068

Auto

67.0 13%

Teleop

293.0 55%

Endgame

168.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9200, 2357, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.5 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9200, 2357, 1684

Auto

78.4 26%

Teleop

149.2 50%

Endgame

72.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score532pts

Blue projected score302.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.6
Score range: 229–605
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 406.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

752.9Season APEX580.3

67Auto78.4

293Teleop149.2

168.9Endgame72.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	41
teleop	276	140
endgame	136	57
foul	0	0
total	490	238

Result

Final score

490 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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