Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

387.8 – 329.42

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.2 ±9.3

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 175.23Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 126.57Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 86Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 698.1 ±9.3

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 161.54Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 47.43Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 120.45Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 2724, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.8 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 8280, 2724, 2053

Auto

51.7 13%

Teleop

218.9 57%

Endgame

116.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 7539, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.4 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 5712, 7539, 166

Auto

71.8 22%

Teleop

177.1 55%

Endgame

73.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score387.8pts

Blue projected score329.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.4
Score range: 255–462
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 658 vs event baseline 411.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.2Season APEX698.1

51.7Auto71.8

218.9Teleop177.1

116.2Endgame73.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	59
teleop	219	159
endgame	82	77
foul	0	0
total	363	295

Result

Final score

363 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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