Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

304.08 – 322.36

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.1 ±11.7

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 99.43Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 120Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 84.65Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.5 ±9.3

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 99.43Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 125.43Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 97.5Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11304, 987, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.1 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 11304, 987, 6417

Auto

69.3 23%

Teleop

165.5 55%

Endgame

66.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2443, 1498, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.4 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2443, 1498, 8575

Auto

57.0 18%

Teleop

163.0 51%

Endgame

100.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score304.1pts

Blue projected score322.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 229–397
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 418.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.1Season APEX564.5

69.3Auto57

165.5Teleop163

66Endgame100.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	42
teleop	170	186
endgame	98	73
foul	0	5
total	302	306

Result

Final score

302 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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