Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.57 – 327.14

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.8 ±14.4

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 152.57Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 99.14Rank 29Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 114.86Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 702.8 ±11.2

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 80.86Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 93.71Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 152.57Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5987, 2682, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.6 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5987, 2682, 3792

Auto

66.0 18%

Teleop

192.6 53%

Endgame

102.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6510, 5166, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.1 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6510, 5166, 9609

Auto

76.6 24%

Teleop

171.4 53%

Endgame

74.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score366.6pts

Blue projected score327.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.4
Score range: 250–444
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 427.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.8Season APEX702.8

66Auto76.6

192.6Teleop171.4

102.3Endgame74.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	120
teleop	189	116
endgame	64	61
foul	10	0
total	325	297

Result

Final score

325 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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