Qualification · Qualification 121

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

387.32 – 369.88

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

460 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668 ±9.8

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 79.02Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 210.53Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 97.77Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 620.8 ±9.3

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 53.33Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 206.29Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 110.26Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7539, 870, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7539, 870, 5166

Auto

83.6 22%

Teleop

171.4 45%

Endgame

125.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9077, 10254, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.9 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9077, 10254, 1477

Auto

76.1 20%

Teleop

216.2 58%

Endgame

81.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score387.3pts

Blue projected score369.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 295–462
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 830 vs event baseline 415.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668Season APEX620.8

83.6Auto76.1

171.4Teleop216.2

125.4Endgame81

167Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	73
teleop	280	263
endgame	79	24
foul	5	10
total	460	370

Result

Final score

460 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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