Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

409.89 – 477.97

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 120.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.3 ±10.5

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 189.78Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 152.3Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 67.81Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.3 ±9.8

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 226.19Rank 6Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 64.09Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 187.69Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3197, 9609, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.9 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3197, 9609, 9200

Auto

95.9 23%

Teleop

246.3 60%

Endgame

67.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7028, 4256, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

478 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 7028, 4256, 1714

Auto

111.3 24%

Teleop

238.5 51%

Endgame

113.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score409.9pts

Blue projected score478pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.1
Score range: 335–553
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 646 vs event baseline 414.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.3Season APEX660.3

95.9Auto111.3

246.3Teleop238.5

67.2Endgame113.7

103Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	132
teleop	221	77
endgame	112	5
foul	0	30
total	402	244

Result

Final score

402 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 120.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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