Qualification · Qualification 116

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.13 – 460.86

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 482

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±11.2

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX -11.68Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 87.64Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 63.17Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 733.3 ±9.4

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 83.11Rank 56Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 84.03Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 293.72Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11304, 4027, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 11304, 4027, 4786

Auto

12.5 9%

Teleop

67.4 51%

Endgame

52.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8725, 2053, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 8725, 2053, 125

Auto

98.9 22%

Teleop

263.0 59%

Endgame

84.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score139.1pts

Blue projected score460.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -321.7
Score range: 64–536
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 415.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX733.3

12.5Auto98.9

67.4Teleop263

52.3Endgame84.4

157Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	124
teleop	97	226
endgame	50	117
foul	30	15
total	219	482

Result

Final score

219 – 482

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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