Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

447.18 – 216.26

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

354 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 120.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 696.8 ±8.7

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 160.54Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 162.81Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 123.83Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.7 ±9.3

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 150.71Rank 21Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 29.54Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 36.01Rank 37Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1024, 571, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.2 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1024, 571, 10349

Auto

75.3 17%

Teleop

241.2 55%

Endgame

121.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 8280, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.3 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1498, 8280, 10922

Auto

66.0 31%

Teleop

96.5 46%

Endgame

48.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score447.2pts

Blue projected score216.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.9
Score range: 141–522
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 718 vs event baseline 415.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

696.8Season APEX591.7

75.3Auto66

241.2Teleop96.5

121.8Endgame48.2

141Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	56
teleop	191	214
endgame	83	94
foul	0	0
total	354	364

Result

Final score

354 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 120.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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