Qualification · Qualification 114

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

477.86 – 137

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

584 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 102.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 784.3 ±8.7

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 100.39Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 256.77Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 120.7Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.9 ±9.3

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 68.52Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 56.59Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 11.89Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 166, 5907, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 166, 5907, 6773

Auto

77.8 16%

Teleop

270.4 57%

Endgame

124.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2357, 8575, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2357, 8575, 11318

Auto

45.3 32%

Teleop

75.5 54%

Endgame

19.6 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score477.9pts

Blue projected score137pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 340.9
Score range: 62–553
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 819 vs event baseline 415.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

784.3Season APEX535.9

77.8Auto45.3

270.4Teleop75.5

124.9Endgame19.6

125Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	79
teleop	342	128
endgame	138	28
foul	0	0
total	584	235

Result

Final score

584 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 102.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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